Odd polls defy odds-on 17/9/2012
What should one make of the astonishing turnaround in Labor’s fortunes in some opinion polls, particularly Newspoll, which now has the Government and Opposition neck and neck?
If you are in the business of selling news, as is the parent company of Newspoll, there is nothing less interesting, therefore less profitable, than a predictable result. So, somehow or other some facts surface to fit a certain story and before you know it, the coat-tail tuggers are telling you that the rank outsider is a definite chance.
Seasoned speculators, however, know the real knowledge is where the hard heads knock, not where the oats-feeders tout for business with wishful thinkers.
Centrebet has a Coalition win returning $1.28 for a $1 investment and Labor $3.60. The amalgam odds offerer, IASbet, squeezes the Libs into $1.25 and Labor $3.50.
As always, follow the money.
Check out Turnbull. He thinks all the current Liberal votes will automatically follow him, in the unlikely event he becomes leader, and then some some Labor and Green ones as well. Reality check Mal, many parking their vote with Tony would rather vote Labor than for you. I know, because I’m one of them.